Safe-haven currency indicators to watch

If you’re sending or receiving any safe-haven currencies, keep an eye out for good news headlines. The more regularly they appear, the more rotation into risk-on assets and away from the US dollar will occur.

Note information on central bank movements. If the US Federal Reserve announces a big package of monetary stimulus such as quantitative easing, that will likely place downward pressure on the US dollar, as interest rates fall to zero or even below, making it a less desirable investment.



The US 10-year bond market is also a good barometer. It is the market’s gauge of inflation, and the higher it rises, the more likely there is to be a hike in official interest rates. Stock markets hate the idea of interest rates rising, so fear of it occurring can result in sharp selloffs – such as the famous “taper tantrum”7 of 2013 when then Fed Chairman spooked the market that QE was coming to an end.

The USD shot up as emerging market currencies dropped.8At the time of writing the US 10-yr yield is at a one-year high9, and currency watchers are keeping a close eye on where it goes next. Whether you are trading the USD or other emerging market currencies, you should too.

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