EUR / USD recovery, but the global trend continues to decline

Yesterday and today were days of EUR / USD recovery, but the global trend continues to decline.

EUR / USD rose further on Monday, confirming the positive divergence between our short-term oscillators and the price action.

Bearing in mind that both German ZEW indices for March are forecast to have risen, I think the recovery is likely to continue for some time, perhaps for another test near the 1.0665 (R1) resistance line.

However, I still believe that the short-term picture is negative. I would expect any upward movement to be short-lived and would expect a move below 1.0460 (S1) to have scope for extensions towards the 1.0360 (S2) barrier, defined by the minimum of 8 January 2003.

Regarding the trend wider, I believe that the pair still has a downward trend. The EUR / USD is revealing lower lows and peaks, below both the 50 and 200 day moving averages.